11 february 2019
Motivation
Data Sources
World Population Estimation
World in the years
Population distribution
World Population Density Distribution
Demographic Transition Model
Warren Thompson, 1929
- Stage One: Pre-Industrial Revolution, high birth rates and death rates
- Stage Two: The Country is developing, death rates tents to diminish while birth rates stay high: population is growing
- Stage Three: Births starts to decrease thanks to the better economic and living conditions
- Stage Four: Birth rates and death rates are both low, so population is stabilizing
- Stage Five (possible stage): Birth rates have fallen below death rates, the population is older
Demographic Transition in Italy
Demographic Transition in Italy
Population Growth Rate (PGR)
The PGR measures the rate at which the number of individuals in a population increases in a given time period:
\[ PGR = \frac{P(t_2) - P(t_1)}{P(t_1)(t_2 - t_1)} \]
What are the Prospects?
How much population there will be in the world in 2100?
Logistic model for Population Growth:
\[ \frac{dN}{dt} = rN(1-\frac{N}{K}) \] Integrating:
\[ N(t) = \frac{K N_0 e^{-rt}}{K + N_0(e^{-rt}-1)} \]
Where:
- \(N_0\) is the starting number of individuals.
- r is the growth rate
- K is the carrying capacity
Logistic model for Population Growth
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References and Data Sources
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory
[2] https://www.kaggle.com/fernandol/countries-of-the-world
[3] https://data.worldbank.org/
[4] https://www.ecology.com/population-estimates-year-2050/ (early ages)
[5] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition
[6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth
[8] http://www.clker.com/clipart-530947.html (clipart)
World Bank Data
Dataset Variables:
- Country Name
- Country Code
- Indicator Name
- Indicator Code
- years from 1960 to 2017
How many people have ever lived on Earth?
| Year | Population | Ever_Born_People |
|---|---|---|
| 8000 B.C | 5.000.000 | 1.137.789.769 |
| 1200 | 450.000.000 | 73.754.465.125 |
| 1750 | 795.000.000 | 89.708.399.091 |
| 1850 | 1.265.000.000 | 93.754.639.100 |
| 1950 | 2.516.000.000 | 100.045.075.171 |
| 2017 | 7.536.000.000 | 108.470.690.115 |